Volume
7, No.3
Fall 2001
Feature
Articles:
Industry
Employment Estimates for Smaller Areas
Nonfarm Employment Estimates
for Smaller Areas
By: Joseph Malcom
Over the years, our customers have requested nonfarm employment data for smaller areas that previously did not meet Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) requirements for participation in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey. Unfortunately, we did not have in place the methodogy to address this need. Now, in response to customer demand, Illinois’ CES Unit and Labor Market Economists (LMEs) of the Economic Information and Analysis (EI&A) Division, in partnership with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center (NORC), have developed a system to produce industry employment estimates for smaller areas.
Illinois is the pioneer of this new estimated model, which is being considered for use by other states. This new and innovative system is the result of six years of research among the partners.
Of Illinois’ 102 counties, 23 counties are, by themselves or clustered with others, known as Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The remaining 79 are, by themselves or clustered with others, known as Labor Market Areas (LMAs). These 79 LMA counties are typically smaller in employment than the MSA counties. Historical employment data for these 79 counties have been developed on a month-by-month basis beginning with January 1999 through the current month.
The method for producing industry estimates for smaller geographical units was researched, tested and implemented by the Illinois Department of Employment Security and the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center (NORC). The research has drawn attention from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) who, in cooperation with Illinois’ CES Unit and NORC, are extending the research to other states.
This report is a step toward exploring the new data series and will focus on the 79 individual counties. Here we will explore some questions which can be answered using the new methodology, such as: What is the range and median value of employment for the 79 counties? What type of industrial structure will we find? Following is an example of how this new system can work for you.
As an example, let’s look at
the three counties that have the least and most number of jobs, plus the
county that falls in the middle: Pope, Madison and De Witt, respectively.
For exploratory reasons, we look first at the internal structure showing
the industrial percentages.
Click here to see the corresponding tables.
Using Illinois for comparison:
(Click here to see the chart)
- Government and Services
score high in all three counties and in Pope County account for nearly
two-thirds of total employment.
- Retail Trade is the only
other industry with employment greater than 10 percent in all three
counties.
- Manufacturing in De Witt
and Madison Counties parallels the Statewide percentage of 15.7 percent.
- Mining accounts for more
than 14 percent of the jobs in Pope County, but is the smallest industry
in the other two counties.
- TCPU is the second largest
industry in De Witt and illustrates the impact in employment a large
company can have on a smaller county.
- Wholesale Trade and FIRE
are both smaller than the Statewide 5 percent in all three counties.
- Pope stands out as being most different from the Statewide structure. Madison closely resembles the Statewide percentages. De Witt is similar to most of the Statewide Industry percentages, however, TCPU and Services both differ by nearly 15 percent.
Joseph
Malcom is an analyst in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Program
of IDES’ Economic Information and Analysis Division. Since joining IDES
in 1999, he has worked in the America’s Labor Market Information System
(ALMIS) , as well as, CES. He received both a BS in Actuarial Science and
a MS in Applied Mathematics with a concentration in Statistics from De Paul
University.