Volume 7, No.4
Winter 2001

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Occupations of the Future
By: Dr. Donna M. Corriveau

“Our technological powers increase, but the side effects and potential hazards also escalate.”

Before September 11th, the immediate future was different than the future now predicted for the short-term. Changes will be needed to respond to the consequences of our current threat, including the need to deal with biological and human weapons. In all areas, the economy will need to reflect the impact on society, with an increase in military, security, and technology that supports these needs. In some areas, technology and computers will increase, but in other areas the slower economy will cause people to delay upgrades on computers and other technologies. Some changes may include people learning of the increasing usability and power of the Internet. An example of the Internet’s impact is the fact that travel agents are becoming displaced by people booking flights online. Yet airlines are experiencing fewer passengers because people are afraid to fly. These are just a few short-term findings. The immediate challenge will be to fund the increased need for security while continuing to develop technology and jobs for the future.

One can predict that the long-term forecasts of some futurists continue to be true, in spite of their speculative nature. Although there are many futurist organizations—those who look into the future and try to figure out what will happen—the author found that the Philips Vision of the Future¹ and the forecasts from George Washington University on Emerging Technologies² hold the most promise. The jobs that will be created or changed are significant.

Philips (www.philips.com), one of the world’s largest electronics companies, finalized its Vision of the Future Web site in February 1997. The project was to predict the future through 2005, looking at the sociocultural developments in societies that lead to technological development. The result of this research project continues to be online at www.design.philips.com/vof/toc1/home.htm (note: in the Web address, the 1 in toc1 is the number, one). There are 60 well-defined concept descriptions representing the most tangible ideas that were presented for approval of leading futurologists from Europe, Asia, and North America. These resulted in Philips deciding which products to develop. It is interesting that some of the technologies have become effective already, while others have changed. Some of the technologies include a continued expansion of information storage on computer chips, voice recognition enhanced with speech-synthesis chips, artificial intelligence of software, virtual reality, smart materials, active plastics, and new light technologies. The digital assistants described have been supplanted by the new Handspring and other technologies—devices that allows the person to hook into another computer or the Internet and perform many functions, yet is a stand alone hand-held device.

Another take on the future is found in the 1997 George Washington University article on emerging technologies. The authors, Halal, Kull, and Leffmann, wrote that the technology revolution that we have, and continue to undergo, has resulted in unprecedented changes, especially from information technologies. These are expected to continue. The jobs that are required for these technologies will be dependent upon computers, artificial intelligence, and intelligent materials, although the need for people as developers, makers, and doers should remain. Still, as can be seen, the types of jobs and industries will change.

Eighty-five emerging technologies were forecast as representative of the crucial advances that would occur in the next 60 years. The predictions used were based on the majority of people using the technology, which in some cases will most likely occur earlier than projected. Given the recent events, it might be expected that more home-based technologies will be adopted sooner rather than later. For instance, the use of personal computers for banking and buying might occur before 2018, when it is predicted.

TiVo, the newly created digital TV, illustrates the beginning of the new digital era for television and computers in the home. The advance of this technology might occur faster than expected. Like personal digital assistants, the value is not in the building of the personal computer, but whether people will buy and when. The market then will require a sufficient number of workers to build these new products. The prediction of web-TV with telephone capabilities in wide use by 2005 or 2006 is probably not far from occurring. Obviously, the closer one is to the year, the easier the predicting is.

Dr. Halal’s team has continued its research in emerging technologies and this research is on a website at www.gwforecast.gwu.edu. The latest research shows many areas will develop faster than expected. One of the most significant indicators of this trend is that one-half of goods sold by electronic commerce will now occur in 2007 instead of 2018. Portable IT devices, electronic banking, and online publishing are now expected to emerge before 2006. All of these changes are congruent with the September 11th tragedy and our new war on terror.

Also as a result of the tragedy, the use of broadband has increased, resulting in real-time web conferencing, e-learning, investor relations webcasting, Internet videoconferencing, Integrated Services Digital Networks (ISDN) and Internet Protocol (IP) videoconferencing, and video interviews.³ This has resulted from a decreased use of flight and new realization of what these technologies can offer. Thus, we see that it is not the technology that decides, but politics and people. Jobs will then flow from this need.