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Volume 5,
No.3 |
Declining Unemployment in
Illinois During the 1990s: Good News For Everyone?
During the past year, Illinois has seen unprecedentedly high levels of people employed while unemployment rates have been at their lowest levels in 25 years. The conventional wisdom is that nearly anyone who wants a job can now find one. But has the current economic expansion (which began in 1991) translated into lower rates of unemployment for all Illinois residents? Using the labor force statistics from the Current Population Survey (CPS) for years 1990-1998, we’ll attempt to answer that question. The CPS is a national monthly survey of about 50,000 households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Among other things, the CPS is the source for monthly national unemployment statistics. On an annual basis, the BLS publishes state unemployment statistics from the CPS, under various demographic and economic categories, such as age, race, gender, occupation and industry. The data for this article was based on an Illinois household sample that ranged from about 2,500 in 1990 to 2,000 in 1998. Employment Gender Gap Diminishes A recent article in the ILMR described the success women have had entering the workforce, particularly as entrepreneurs (ILMR, Summer 1999). Illinois labor force estimates from the CPS appear to support the assertion that women are improving economically. Although the unemployment rate for women in Illinois did not drop as much as the unemployment rate for men between 1990-1998, the percentage of women employed rose by about four percentage points or from about 55 to 59 percent over the same period (see table 2). Also, following a period of large disparities in the early 1990s, the unemployment rate gap between men and women was nearly eliminated by 1998. Men generally participate in the labor force at larger percentages than women because of a variety of social and economic reasons. But male participation in the labor force has dropped slightly over the 8-year period from 1990-98. In 1990, about 78 percent of men were in the labor force; by 1998, the percentage had fallen to 76 percent. The percentage of men employed also decreased slightly, dropping from 73.4 percent in 1990 to 72.9 percent in 1998. Falling Unemployment for Minority Racial Groups As compared with Whites and Hispanics, Blacks saw their unemployment rate fall most sharply over eight years, decreasing by almost 50 percent or from 17.4 to 9.4 percent (see table 1). At the same time, the percentage of the Black population employed in Illinois grew by eight points, the largest among all racial groups. However, despite these positive developments, the 1998 unemployment rate for Blacks was nearly 10 percent and more than double the unemployment rate for all Illinois residents in the labor force. Hispanics continue to have large percentages of people employed and in the labor force. In 1998, the percentage of Hispanics in the labor force was about 72 percent, the highest among all racial groups. Also, as of 1998, better than two-thirds of Hispanics living in Illinois were employed, somewhat less than in 1990. As far as unemployment rates are concerned, Hispanics experienced smaller percentage declines (-15%) as compared with Whites (-20%) and Blacks (-46%). What’s more, in 1998, the Hispanic unemployment rate was more than one and a half times the unemployment rate for all Illinois residents. High Unemployment among Youth Persists The youngest working age people (here defined as ages 16-19) typically have higher unemployment rates as compared with other groups as the result of limited education and work experience. One might expect the disparity between unemployment rates for youth and unemployment rates for the entire working age population to decline during an economic expansion. The Illinois data from the CPS, unfortunately, don’t support that hypothesis. The youth unemployment rate fell by 20 percent or 3.1 points over the 1990-1998 period but, in 1998, was still 2.8 times the unemployment rate for all Illinois residents. The 1990 youth unemployment rate, by comparison, was 2.5 times the overall Illinois unemployment rate. Unemployment among Occupational Groups Varies with Skills, Industry Trends Most occupational groups experienced decreases in their unemployment rates during the current expansion. Occupations that saw the biggest percentage of declines in unemployment rates (see table 1). were Technicians and Related Support (-80%); Machine Operators, Assemblers and Inspectors (-37%); and Precision Production, Craft and Repair (-36%). Many of these decreases reflect the growing demand for technically trained and specialized professionals, such as those working in information technology sectors. Executive, Administrative and Managerial workers saw their unemployment rates fall in the mid-1990s and then rise again to 2.2% in 1998, possibly as the result of the elimination of middle management in some industries. The recent increase in unemployment rates for workers (+1.8 points between 1995 and 1998) has coincided with reported declines of those self-employed in the agricultural industry. Unemployment rates dropped in most of the major industries reported in the CPS. The private industries experiencing the biggest decreases were Manufacturing (-48%) and Construction (-42%). The Agriculture industry experienced a sudden jump in its unemployment rate in 1998, consistent with what was reported for Farming, Forestry, and Fishing workers. How does Illinois compare with the U.S.? For much of the 1990s, the unemployment rate was lower nationwide than in Illinois. However, beginning in 1994, the Illinois unemployment rate has been either lower than or at the same level as the U.S. unemployment rate (see table 3 for U.S. rates for demographic groups). The unemployment rates for women in Illinois have basically mirrored the overall Illinois/U.S. relationship, falling below national levels since 1994. Unemployment rates for Blacks have been higher in Illinois as compared with the nation, but the disparity has narrowed in recent years. Hispanic unemployment rates have been consistently lower in Illinois as compared to the U.S., with largest differences reported during the years immediately following the recession of the early 1990s. The unemployment rates for Illinois youth followed the same pattern as the overall Illinois unemployment rate, dropping below national youth unemployment rate levels beginning in 1994. Most Illinois residents have benefited greatly during the current economic expansion, the longest during peacetime in the nation’s history: Unemployment rates have plummeted and nearly two-thirds of the State’s residents are employed. Nonetheless, behind the top-level numbers is a more complex picture. Success has been nearly universal but large disparities in unemployment rates among racial groups and between youth and experienced workers remain. |
|
Illinois
Annual Unemployment Rates by Demographic, Industrial, |
table1 | ||||||||||
| Demographic Groups | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 1990-98 | %90-98 |
| All | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.2 | -1.7 | -27% |
| Men | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 6.3 | -1.9 | -30% |
| Women | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.2 | -1.7 | -27% |
| 16-19 | 12.5 | 14.2 | 16.5 | 15.5 | 14.7 | 19.0 | 21.3 | 18.6 | 15.6 | -3.1 | -20% |
| White | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 4.5 | -0.8 | -46% |
| Black | 9.4 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 14.0 | 16.7 | 17.9 | 18.5 | 17.4 | -8.0 | -46% |
| Hispanic | 6.0 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 7.1 | -1.1 | -15% |
| Major Industry Groups | |||||||||||
| Construction | 6.7 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 11.6 | 15.2 | 14.1 | 15.7 | 11.5 | -4.8 | -42% |
| Manufacturing | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 6.6 | -3.2 | -48% |
| TCPU* | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 13% |
| Trade | 6.1 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.6 | -1.5 | -20% |
| FIRE** | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.6 | -0.6 | -23% |
| Services | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | -0.4 | -8% |
| Government | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 3.5 | -1.7 | -49% |
| Agriculture | 7.9 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 46% |
| Occupational Groups | |||||||||||
| Executive, Administrative,& Managerial | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -21% |
| Professional Specialty | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 13% |
| Technicians & Related Support | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 4.1 | -3.3 | -80% |
| Sales | 5.3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | -0.3 | -5% |
| Administrative Support Including General | 3.4 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 4.4 | -1.0 | -23% |
| Service Occupations | 6.8 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 8.0 | -1.2 | -15% |
| Precision Production, Craft, and Repair | 3.6 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 5.6 | -2.0 | -36% |
| Machine Operators, Assemblers, & Inspectors | 6.2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 9.8 | -3.6 | -37% |
| Transport, Material Moving | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.2 | -2.1 | -34% |
| Handler, Equipment Cleaners, Helpers, Laborers | 11.0 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 14.0 | 16.7 | 15.2 | 13.3 | -2.3 | -17% |
| Farming, Forestry, Fishing | 6.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 8% |
| *
Transportation-Communications-Public Utilities **Finance-Insurance-Real Estate |
|||||||||||
| Source: Current Population Survey (CPS) 1990-98 conducted by the US Bureau of Census for the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) | |||||||||||
|
Employment-Population
Ratios: |
table 2 | |||||||||
| 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 1990-98 | |
| All | 65.5 | 65.3 | 64.9 | 64.8 | 63.9 | 62.8 | 63.2 | 62.9 | 63.9 | 1.6 |
| Men | 72.9 | 73.2 | 72.9 | 73.0 | 72.1 | 71.0 | 71.4 | 72.1 | 73.4 | -0.5 |
| Women | 58.7 | 58.0 | 57.5 | 57.3 | 56.4 | 55.3 | 55.6 | 54.4 | 55.1 | 3.6 |
| 16-19 | 48.4 | 46.5 | 44.6 | 47.5 | 47.5 | 43.5 | 42.7 | 43.6 | 46.6 | 1.8 |
| White | 66.9 | 67.1 | 66.9 | 67.0 | 65.9 | 65.1 | 65.4 | 65.6 | 66.6 | 0.3 |
| Black | 56.5 | 55.2 | 53.0 | 51.3 | 51.8 | 50.5 | 50.4 | 47.4 | 48.5 | 8.0 |
| Hispanic | 67.4 | 67.5 | 67.7 | 67.2 | 66.4 | 66.3 | 64.8 | 65.9 | 69.7 | -2.3 |
| Men have the highest percentages of those employed and in the labor force but their numbers have decreased by 0.5 percent over the 1990-1998 period, while womens’ percentages increased by 3.6 percent. In 1998, the percentage of Hispanics in the labor force was about 72 percent, the highest among all racial groups. The percentage of Blacks employed and in the labor force increased 8.0 percent bringing their 1998 total to 56.5 percent. | ||||||||||
| Source: Current Population Survey (CPS) 1990-98 conducted by the US Bureau of Census for the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) | ||||||||||
|
U.S.
Annual Unemployment Rates |
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| 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 90-98 | %90-98 | |
| All | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 5.6 | -1.1 | -19.6 |
| Men | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 5.7 | -1.3 | -22.8 |
| Women | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 5.5 | -0.9 | -16.4 |
| 16-19 | 14.6 | 16.0 | 16.7 | 17.3 | 17.6 | 19.0 | 20.1 | 18.7 | 15.5 | -0.9 | -5.8 |
| White | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 4.8 | -0.9 | -18.8 |
| Black | 8.9 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 11.4 | -2.5 | -21.9 |
| Hispanic | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 8.2 | -1.0 | -12.2 |
| Richard Reinhold has worked at IDES
since 1992 and currently holds the position of manager of Local Area Unemployment
Statistics (LAUS). His education includes a master's degree in economic
development from the University of Illinois at Chicago. Contact him by E-mail: rreinho@ides.state.il.us Phone: (312) 793-5896 Fax: (312)793-2192 |